06 July 2017

US ADP Non-Farm Payrolls: Thursday, 12:15. The report is usually released on Wednesday, but it is delayed due to the 4th of July celebrations. ADP’s report for private sector jobs was very positive in May, showing a leap of 253K jobs, far better than expected. However, this was not well correlated with the actual private sector jobs gained according to the official BLS report. A gain of 181K jobs is on the cards.

US jobless claims: Thursday, 12:30. The weekly barometer of jobless claims has been stable around 240K in recent weeks. It is a reminder that the number of the jobless is sliding constantly and serves as another minor indicator for the NFP on Friday. A small rise from 244K to 245K is predicted.

ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI: Thursday, 14:00. The report for the services sector is a very important indicator for the NFP. Contrary to the previous month, this report is released just on time to alter expectations. Back in May, the indicator slid from 57.5 to 56.9, still showing robust growth in the biggest sector in America. Watch out for the employment component in the specific content of the jobs report. A drop from 56.9 to 56.6 is predicted.

Crude Oil Inventories:  Thursday, 14:30. Also here, the report is postponed from Wednesday to Thursday. The amount of stored oil is not falling very fast or at times it is rising. The last result was a minor rise of 0.1 million. This has kept the pressure on oil prices. Apart from the immediate impact on the Canadian dollar, it has a wider impact on the greenback: there is an inverse correlation between the dollar and oil prices. Lower oil prices could help the dollar.

 

USD
ADP Non-Farm Payrolls
US jobless claims
ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
Crude Oil Inventories

  • EURUSD

Update: the pair managed to break through the level of 1.1360 so we would go short targeting the level of 1.1300 during the day. The pair is traded right above a strong key level (resistance) 1.1360 so we believe that as long as the pair is traded above it, it is highly recommended to go long targeting the level of 1.1400 followed by 1.1500 during the week. On the other hand, breaching the level of 1.1360 will open the door for further downward movement during the week.

 

Resistance levels: Support levels: Recommended:
▪ 1.1550
▪-1.1500
▪ 1.1450
▪ 1.1360
▪-1.1300
▪ 1.1250
We remain bullish as long as the pair is traded above the level of 1.1360.
  • GBPUSD

Update: having the pair traded below the level of 1.3040 would open the door for further downward movement. As could be seen on the chart above that the pair is traded right below a strong resistance level that could be found around 1.3040 so we believe that as long as the pair is traded below it, it is highly recommended to go short targeting the level of 1.3000 followed by 1.2900 during the week. On the other hand, breaching the level of 1.3040 will open the door for further upward movement during the week.

 

Resistance levels: Support levels: Recommended:
▪ 1.3040
▪-1.3100
▪ 1.2900
▪ 1.2800
▪ —
We remain bearish as long as the pair is traded below the level of 1.3000
  • GOLD


 

Update: the pair is still traded above the level of 1215 so we won’t go short until this level is broken that we can go short targeting the level of 1200. Regardless the last downward movement that could be clearly seen on the chart above, the pair is facing a strong support level which is the uptrend line shown on the chart so we believe that as long as the pair is traded above it, it is highly recommended to go long targeting the level of 1250 followed by 1265 during the week. On the other hand, breaching the level of 1225 along with the uptrend line shown in red on the chart will open the door for further downward movement during the week.

Resistance levels: Support levels: Recommended:
▪ 1270
▪ 1265
▪ 1250
▪ 1215
▪ 1210
We remain bullish as long as the pair is traded above the level of 1215
  • AUDUSD

Update: More of the downside movement is expected. We remain bearish as long as the pair is traded below the level of 0.7725. As could be seen on the chart above that the pair is traded right below a strong resistance level that could be found around the level of 0.7725 so we believe that as long as the pair is traded below it, it is highly recommended to go short targeting the level of 0.7650 followed by 0.7600 during the week. On the other hand, breaching the level of 0.7725 can open the door for further upward movement during the week.

Resistance levels: Support levels: Recommended:
▪ 0.7725
▪-0.7800
▪ 0.7850
▪ 0.7635
▪ 0.7550
We remain bearish as long as the pair is traded below the level of 0.7725.
  • GBPJPY

Update: the pair is still traded below the level of 148 so we remain bearish. The pair is in a strong uptrend as could be seen on the chart above. So, it may continue going up to reach the level of 148 then a pullback is expected if the pair shows some negative factors right below the level of 148.

 

Resistance levels: Support levels: Recommended:
▪ 148
▪ 147.95
▪ 145
▪ 144
▪ 143
We remain bearish as long as the pair is traded below the level of 148.