07 September 2017

ECB rate decision: Thursday, 11:45, press conference at 12:30. Will the ECB announce QE tapering? And what will the scale be? These are open questions that keep EUR/USD on the edge. We know that the central bank will make a decision in the fall, according to what ECB President Mario Draghi said in the previous decision. The bond-buying scheme currently consists of 60 billion euros per month until the end of 2017 and the big question is for the future of the program in early 2018. Will they make another reduction of 20 billion but continue the program for longer? Or will they reduce the scale on a monthly basis and end it soon? The ECB could also delay the decision to the October meeting, but making a decision now makes more sense. The ECB releases new forecasts for inflation and growth right now and they usually make decisions around the decisions that include new forecasts. EUR/USD is holding its breath.

Japanese GDP (final): Thursday, 23:50. Japan’s preliminary publication of Q2 GDP came out much better than expected: a quarterly growth rate of 1%. Will it be downgraded this time? Japanese GDP reads see significant revisions. A downgrade to 0.7% is projected.
JPY
Japanese GDP (final)

  • EURUSD

Update: The pair is still traded above the downside of the ascending channel. The pair is still consolidating after a strong bullish rally. It is also traded within an ascending channel. It is expected to show bullish pressures as long as the pair is traded above the downside of the ascending channel.

Resistance levels: Support levels: Recommended:
▪ 1.2000
▪ 1.2100
▪ 1.1900
▪-1.1850
▪ 1.1800
We remain bullish as long as the pair is traded above the level of 1.1900.
  • GBPUSD

Update: the pair managed to break through the level of 1.3000 and confirmed with yesterday’s close. This opens the door for further upward movement towards the level of 1.3120. The pair managed to break through the level of 1.3000 and the broken uptrend line again which is considered to be a bullish signal. The daily close (of today) will confirm the breakout of the levels mentioned above.

Resistance levels: Support levels: Recommended:
▪ 1.3200
▪ 1.3000
▪ 1.3000
▪ 1.2800
▪ 1.2700
We remain bearish as long as the pair is traded below the level of 1.3000.
  • GOLD

 

Update: A downward movement is expected (correction) to the level of 1330. Bullish pressures are expected as long as the pair is traded above the level of 1300. The pair managed to break through a strong resistance level (1300). This is a bullish sign that the pair may continue going up to reach the level of 1330 followed by 1350. This is conditioned by the continuation of trading above the level of 1300.

 

Resistance levels: Support levels: Recommended:
▪ 1350
▪ 1340
▪ 1300
▪ 1210
▪ 1200
We remain bullish as long as the pair is traded above the level of 1300
  • AUDUSD

Update: expected to show more bearish pressures. The pair may continue going up to reach the level of 0.8000 then a pullback is expected. So, we believe that as long as the pair is traded below it, it is highly recommended to go short targeting the level of 0.7800 followed by 0.7700. This is conditioned by the continuation of trading below the level of 0.8000.

Resistance levels: Support levels: Recommended:
▪ 0.8000
▪ 0.7700
▪ 0.7600
▪ 0.7500
We remain short as long as the pair is traded below the level of 0.8000.
  • GBPJPY

Update: we remain bearish. The pair is traded right below a strong resistance level that can be found at 143.42. So, this is considered to be bearish for the pair that it may continue going down to reach the level of 141 followed by 140 during the week.

Resistance levels: Support levels: Recommended:
▪ 148
▪ 147.95
▪ 139
▪ 138
Expected to show more bearish pressures.