Australian jobs report: Thursday, 1:30. After enjoying an upbeat GDP report, this week features another top-tier figure: the employment report. After reporting an increase of 22.6K in April, a similar gain of 19.2K positions is on the cards for May. The unemployment in the land down under is forecast to remain at 5.6%, a healthy level.
ECB rate decision: Thursday, 11:45, with the press conference at 12:30. Expectations are now much higher than they used to be after reports came out about a live discussion on the next steps in the Quantitative Easing program, a topic the Governing Council refrained from in previous gatherings. The current QE program runs through September and has a pace of 30 billion euros per month. Markets expect further bond buying at the three remaining months of the year, albeit at a slower pace, before purchases come to an end. An initial rate hike is projected for mid-2019. The ECB may indeed announce the reduction and end of bond buying, but the details are somewhat up in the air. A clear commitment to end QE with an end date could boost the euro while a more vague statement about future moves could weigh on it. If Draghi only says that a discussion was held but does not make any announcements, the drop could be sharper. The forecasts for inflation and growth could also have an impact.
US Retail Sales: Thursday, 12:30. The US economy is centered around consumption and the monthly retail sales report is a key publication. Coming after the Fed, the impact may not be as strong. Nevertheless, some reaction is guaranteed. Headline retail sales are projected to rise by 0.4%, faster than 0.3% seen in April. May’s core retail sales are predicted to advance by 0.3%, the same rate as in the previous month.
AUD
Australian jobs report
USD
US Retail Sales
- EURUSD
The daily timeframe shows that the pair is traded above a strong uptrend line (in red) and the price may continue going down to reach the uptrend line. In case the pair reaches the uptrend line and shows up some bullish evidence, we can go long targeting the level of 1.19 during the week.
| Resistance levels: | Support levels: | Recommended: |
| ▪ 1.21 ▪ 1.20 ▪ — |
▪ 1.17 ▪ 1.1650 ▪ 1.1600 |
We are bullish as long as the pair is traded above the uptrend line. |
- GBPUSD
As we can see on the daily chart that the pair is traded above an uptrend line (in red). If the pair continues to go down to reach it, then if it shows up some bullish evidence, we can go long targeting the level of 1.36 during the week.
| Resistance levels: | Support levels: | Recommended: |
| ▪ 1.36 ▪ 1.35 ▪ 1.34 |
▪ 1.3200 ▪ 1.3150 ▪ 1.3000 |
We are bullish as long as the pair is traded above the up trendline. |
- GOLD
Having the pair traded above the uptrend line, opens the door for further upward movements during the week that it may reach the level of 1300 followed by 1310. This is conditioned by the continuation of trading abovethe uptrend line along with the level of 1270.
| Resistance levels: | Support levels: | Recommended: |
| ▪ 1330 ▪ 1320 ▪ — |
▪ 1280 ▪ 1275 ▪ 1270 |
We are bullish as long as the pair is traded above the level of 1270. |
- AUDUSD
Having the pair traded above the uptrend line, opens the door for further upward movements during the week that it may reach the level of 0.77 followed by 0.78.
| Resistance levels: | Support levels: | Recommended: |
| ▪ 0.7550 ▪ 0.7600 ▪ — |
▪ 0.7370 ▪ 0.7300 ▪ |
We are bullish as long as the pair is traded above the uptrend line. |
- GBPJPY
As we can see on the daily timeframe that the pair has formed a symmetrical triangle and the downside of the pattern has been broken. So, we believe that as long as the pair is traded below it, it is highly recommended to go short targeting the level of 145 during the week.
| Resistance levels: | Support levels: | Recommended: |
| ▪ 156 ▪ 155 ▪ 150.50 |
▪ 144 ▪ 144 ▪ 143 |
We are bearish as long as the pair is traded below the downside of the pattern. |
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