11 April 2018

Euro-zone inflation: Wednesday, 9:00. The initial read for inflation in March is expected to show an increase in CPI from 1.1% to 1.4% y/y and core CPI from 1% to 1.1%. However, expectations may have dampened after Germany’s figures came out below expectations. The ECB is likely to taper down its bond buys in September and end it completely at the end of the year. However, there is a fierce internal debate within the Governing Council between the doves such as President Draghi and the hawks, led by the leading candidate to replace him, Jens Weidmann. Inflation is the single needle in the ECB’s compass and any rise or fall matters.

ADP Non-Farm Payrolls: Wednesday, 12:15. The ADP report for the private sector serves as a hint towards the NFP even though the correlation between the reports is not always clear to see. In February, ADP reported a strong gain of 235K jobs and a lower gain of 206K is predicted for March.

ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI: Wednesday, 14:00. The last hint for the NFP comes from the forward-looking index for the services sector, the largest in the US. The score hit a high of 59.5 points in February and a small dip to 59.2 is expected. The employment component is also significant as a hint towards Friday’s big event.

USD

ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
ADP Non-Farm Payrolls

EUR

Euro-zone inflation

  • EURUSD

As could be seen on the daily chart that the pair is on its way to reach the resistance levels of 1.2440 – 1.25 so we believe that if the pair reaches one of those levels, we can go short targeting the level of 1.24 followed by 1.2350 during the week. This is conditioned by the continuation of trading below the level of 1.2550.

 

Resistance levels: Support levels: Recommended:
▪ 1.2550
▪ 1.2440
▪ —
▪ 1.22
▪ 1.21
▪ 1.1550
We are bearish as long as the pair is traded below the level of 1.2550.
  • GBPUSD

As could be seen on the daily chart that the pair is on its way to reach the resistance levels of 1.4270 – 1.4340. This is where we can go short if the pair shows some negative factors below them. If this happens, we can go short targeting the level of 1.40 followed by 1.3950 during the week.

 

Resistance levels: Support levels: Recommended:
▪ 1.4340
▪ 1.4200
▪ —
▪ 1.3800
▪ 1.3700
▪ 1.3600
We are bearish as long as the pair is traded below the level of 1.4340..
  • GOLD

For the fifth time, the pair is traded below strong resistance levels that could be found at 1365 to 1350. So, we are bearish as long as the pair is traded below them. Our first target is: 1330 followed by 1320.

 

Resistance levels: Support levels: Recommended:
▪ 1350
▪ 1365
▪ —
▪ 1310
▪ 1300
▪ 1290
We are bearish as long as the pair is traded below the level of 1365.
  • AUDUSD

As could be seen on the daily chart that the pair is traded within a descending channel. Having the pair traded above the upside of the channel can open the door for further downward movements during the week that it can reach the level of 0.7671.

 

 

Resistance levels: Support levels: Recommended:
▪ 0.8000
▪ 0.7900
▪ —
▪ 0.7700
▪ 0.7600
▪ 0.7500
We are bearish as long as the pair is traded below the upside of the channel.
  • GBPJPY

The pair successfully formed a head and shoulders pattern as could be seen on the daily chart. The neck-line of the pattern is broken (150.30) so we are bullish as long as the pair is traded above it. Our first target is 153 followed by 154.

 

Resistance levels: Support levels: Recommended:
▪ 156
▪ 155
▪ 147
▪ 146
We are bullish as long as the pair is traded above the level of 150.30.

 

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