German GDP: Wednesday, 7:00. We already have a preliminary estimate of euro-zone GDP, but that did not include the largest economy: Germany. The locomotive of the euro-zone saw a very robust growth rate of 0.8% in Q3 2017. We will now get an estimate for the Q4 and the full year. Q4 carries expectations for 0.6%.
US inflation: Wednesday, 13:30. Inflation is the missing ingredient: with solid growth, an upbeat job market and even higher wages, the absence of inflation is a “mystery” as former Fed Chair Janet Yellen described it in the past. Core CPI rose by 0.3% m/m in December with 0.2% expected now. Year over year, core prices advanced by 1.8% and a repeat is on the cards now.. A rise here is the key. Headline inflation was only 0.1% and is now expected to rise by 0.3%.
US retail sales: Wednesday, 13:30. The US economy is focused on consumption, making this a top-tier indicator. However, with the growing importance of inflation and the simultaneous publication, an “as expected” outcome on CPI would be needed to put more emphasis on sales. In December, both headline and core sales rose by 0.4%. Headline sales are projected to rise by 0.5% and core sales by 0.2%.
USD
US inflation
US retail sales
EUR
German GDP
- EURUSD
Update: We remain the same. As could be seen on the daily chart that the pair is traded above a strong support level that is the 50 MA (shown on chart in red). Therefore, we are bullish as long as the pair is traded above it that it may reach the level of 1.2500 during the week.
| Resistance levels: | Support levels: | Recommended: |
| ▪ 1.2525 ▪ — ▪ — |
▪ 1.21 ▪ 1.1600 ▪ 1.1550 |
We are bullish as long as the pair is traded above the 50 MA. |
- GBPUSD
Update: We remain the same. The pair is traded above a strong support level that could be found at 50 MA. Therefore, we are bullish as long as the pair is traded above it. Our target for the week is 1.40.
| Resistance levels: | Support levels: | Recommended: |
| ▪ 1.4100 ▪ 1.3970 ▪ — |
▪ 1.3800 ▪ 1.3700 ▪ 1.3600 |
We remain bullish as long as the pair is traded above the 50 MA. |
- GOLD
Update: First target was hit, 2nd target is 1360. As could be seen on the daily chart that the pair is traded above a strong support level that is 1300. So, we believe that as long as the pair is traded above it, it is highly recommended to go long targeting the level of 1350 during the week.
| Resistance levels: | Support levels: | Recommended: |
| ▪ 1350 ▪ — ▪ — |
▪ 1310 ▪ 1300 ▪ 1290 |
We remain bullish as long as the pair is traded above the level of 1300. |
- AUDUSD
Update: We remain the same. As could be seen on the daily chart that the pair is testing the 50 MA (shown on chart in red) so in case it managed to retest it and hold below it then the way would be open for the pair to reach the level of 0.7760 during the week. On the other hand, breaching the level of 0.7900 can open the door for further upward movement during the week.
| Resistance levels: | Support levels: | Recommended: |
| ▪ 0.8000 ▪ 0.7900 ▪ — |
▪ 0.7737 ▪ 0.7600 ▪ 0.7500 |
We are bearish as long as the pair is traded below the level of 0.7900. |
- GBPJPY
Update: We remain the same. As we mentioned last week that the pair would reach the downside of the ascending channel and it successfully reached it. So, it acts as a strong support level for now that can help the GBP to gain value against the JPY during the week. On the other hand, breaching the downside of the ascending channel, can open the door for further downward movement during the week.
| Resistance levels: | Support levels: | Recommended: |
| ▪ 156 ▪ 155 |
▪ 148 ▪ 147 |
We remain bullish as long as the pair is traded above the downside of the pattern. |
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