14 September 2018

US retail sales: Friday, 12:30. The US consumer has been out and about in July. The total volume of sales rose by 0.5% and core sales advanced by 0.6%. Despite some downward revisions, the overall picture looks quite upbeat. Further increases are on the cards for August, but a slower pace may be seen. The data feed into GDP calculations and have a significant impact. Headline sales are predicted to rise by 0.4% and core sales by 0.5%.

US consumer sentiment: Friday, 14:00. The University of Michigan’s final consumer sentiment figure for August stood at 95.3 points, lower than in previous months. On the other hand, the parallel CB measure jumped to the highest levels since the year 2000. We will now get the preliminary read by UoM for September. It will be interesting to see if the trade wars have already had an effect on the American consumer. Higher prices may hurt confidence. A level of 96.9 is on the cards.

USD
US consumer sentiment
US retail sales

  • EURUSD

Update: Today’s candle is bearish so we remain bearish until the pair breaks the neckline of the pattern.As could be seen on the daily chart that the pair formed a head and shoulders pattern. The second shoulder is being formed. Once it is formed, we will wait for the pair to break the neck-line of the pattern. It will be confirmed with a daily close above the neck-line. In case the neck-line is broken, it is expected that the pair might continue going up to reach the level of 1.1850.

Resistance levels: Support levels: Recommended:
▪ 1.21
▪ 1.1850
▪ 1.1780
▪ 1.15
▪ 1.1450
▪ 1.14
Waiting for the pair to break the neck-line of the head and shoulders pattern.
  • GBPUSD

Update: No changes as the pair is still traded below the downtrend line. The daily chart shows that the pair is traded below a strong resistance that is the downtrend line. In case the pair shows up some bearish evidence below it, we can go short targeting the level of 1.28 during the week. This is conditioned by the continuation of trading below the downtrend line.

Resistance levels: Support levels: Recommended:
▪ 1.36
▪ 1.35
▪ 1.31

▪ 1.2650
▪ 1.2550
We are bearish as long as the pair is traded below the down trend line.
  • GOLD

Update: The pair is still traded below the downtrend line. As could be seen on the daily chart that the pair is traded below the downtrend line shown on the chart in blue. We believe that as long as the pair is traded below it, it is highly recommended to go short targeting the level of 1180 during the week. This is conditioned by the continuation of trading below the level of 1220.

Resistance levels: Support levels: Recommended:
▪ 1330
▪ 1320
▪ 1220
▪ 1200
▪ 1190
▪ 1180
We are bearish as long as the pair is traded below the level of 1220.
  • AUDUSD

Update: Still waiting for a bullish signal. As could be seen on the daily chart that the pair is on its way to the level of 0.7050. In case the pair shows up some bullish evidence above it, we can go long targeting the level of 0.7350 during the week. This is conditioned by the continuation of trading above the level of 0.7050.

Resistance levels: Support levels: Recommended:
▪ 0.7550
▪ 0.7600
▪ 0.7260
▪ 0.7160
▪ 0.71
We are bullish as long as the pair is traded above the level of 0.7050.
  • GBPJPY

Update: The upside of the descending price channel is broken so the pair might continue going up to reach the level of 148. The pair is traded within a descending channel. Just right below the upside of the pattern. In case the pair shows up some bearish evidence below it, we can go short targeting the level of 143 followed by 142 during the week.

Resistance levels: Support levels: Recommended:
▪ 156
▪ 155
▪ 146
▪ —
▪ —
▪ 140
We are bearish as long as the pair is traded below the upside of the pattern.

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