Japanese rate decision: Friday, early morning. The rate decision by the Bank of Japan became more important after the recent speech by Governor Haruhiko Kuroda. He said that they may begin removing stimulus in the fiscal year 2019 (beginning in April 2019). While he conditioned it on inflation reaching the 2% target, the mere mention of an exit was a novelty. Market will want to see if the BOJ also includes such text in the rate decision and if Kuroda talks about it once again. A return to “it is too early to talk about an exit” would weigh on the yen. Note that Kuroda will also speak earlier in the week. In any case, no change is expected in the interest rate which stands at a negative 0.10%.
US Non-Farm Payrolls: Friday, 13:30. The US published a great jobs report for January: a healthy gain of 200K jobs and a rise in wages: 0.3% MoM and 2.9%, above the average of 2.5% y/y seen in 2017. This time, a similar increase of 204K positions is on the cards and wages are projected to rise by 0.3% m/m. While the Fed is currently leaning towards four rate hikes in 2018, this still isn’t a done deal. A solid jobs report is necessary for an upgrade of the dot-plot. The unemployment rate is projected to drop from 4.1% to 4%, but this is accompanied by a low participation rate.
Canadian jobs report: Friday, 13:30. Canada saw a fall of 88K jobs in January after two months of around 79K each month. This time, a more modest gain is likely, around 68K. The unemployment rate, which stood at 5.9%, may slide back to 5.8%. Note that wages are also becoming important in Canada after they rose by 3.3% y/y, better than in the US.
JPY
Japanese rate decision
USD
US Non-Farm Payrolls
CAD
Canadian jobs report
- EURUSD
Update: We remain the same. As could be seen on the daily chart that the pair is traded above a strong support level that is 1.21. Therefore, we are bullish as long as the pair is traded above it that it may reach the level of 1.25 during the week.
| Resistance levels: | Support levels: | Recommended: |
| ▪ 1.2530 ▪ — ▪ — |
▪ 1.21 ▪ 1.1600 ▪ 1.1550 |
We are long as long as the pair is traded above the level of 1.21. |
- GBPUSD
Update: Today’s trading session is a little bit bullish but we are still bearish. As could be seen on the daily chart that the pair is traded right above a strong support level that is the EMA of 50 (D). So, we are bullish as long as the pair is traded within a descending channel. The pair is heading towards the upside of the channel. In case the pair shows some negative factors below it, we can go short targeting the downside of the channel.
| Resistance levels: | Support levels: | Recommended: |
| ▪ 1.4200 ▪ 1.4100 ▪ — |
▪ 1.3800 ▪ 1.3700 ▪ 1.3600 |
We are bearish as long as the pair is traded below the downside of the descending channel. |
- GOLD
Update: In case the pair reaches the level of 1310 to 1300 and shows positive factors, we can go long.The pair is heading towards the level of 1350. We will be waiting for the pair to be traded between the level of 1350 and 1365 and in case it shows some negative factors there, we can go short targeting the level of 1310 during the week.
| Resistance levels: | Support levels: | Recommended: |
| ▪ 1350 ▪ — ▪ — |
▪ 1310 ▪ 1300 ▪ 1290 |
We are bearish as long as the pair is traded below the level of 1365. |
- AUDUSD
Update: We remain the same. As could be seen on the daily chart that the pair is heading towards the level of 0.7900. This is where we can go short that in case the pair shows some negative factors, we can go short targeting the level of 0.7800 followed by 0.7750 during the week. On the other hand, breaching the level of 0.79 can open the door for further upward movement during the week that it may reach the level of 0.80 followed by 0.8050 during the week.
| Resistance levels: | Support levels: | Recommended: |
| ▪ 0.8000 ▪ 0.7900 ▪ — |
▪ 0.7700 ▪ 0.7600 ▪ 0.7500 |
Waiting for the pair to reach the level of 0.79. |
- GBPJPY
Update: We remain the same. The pair successfully rebounded around the level of 145 and it is heading towards the broken downside of the ascending channel shown on the chart.
| Resistance levels: | Support levels: | Recommended: |
| ▪ 156 ▪ 155 |
▪ 147 ▪ 146 |
The pair is heading towards the broken downside of the broken channel. |
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