UK jobs report: Wednesday, 8:30. Britain enjoys a high level of employment, with unemployment at 4.6% back in April. However, wages were stuck at 2.1%, below the level of inflation. A drop to 1.8% y/y is on the cards now. And in May, jobless claims, known as Claimant Count Change, rose by a worrying 7.3K. This is expected to show another rise, 10.4K this time.
Janet Yellen testifies Wednesday and Thursday at 14:00. The Fed Chair meets lawmakers and she will undoubtedly talk about the economy. Her previous public appearance did not touch on any market-moving topics. Markets are curious to understand what the next moves of the Fed are. The most common assumption is that the Fed will begin reducing its balance sheet in September and raise rates once again in December. The recent rate statement included optimism about growth and employment while shrugging off weak inflation as transitory. Will Yellen repeat this tone once again? Or are doubts beginning to creep in? The prepared statement will be released on Wednesday at 14:00 and it will be followed by a Q&A session. Yellen will then repeat the same statement on Thursday with another set of Q&A. Market impact will likely be stronger on Wednesday.
Canadian rate decision: Wednesday, 14:00. After the recent hawkish tilt from the BOC, expectations are high. Stephen Poloz and his colleagues are unlikely to raise rates in this July meeting, but a hike in October is not ruled out. The accompanying statement could include important hints about future moves. The economy is growing nicely and oil prices are stable. On the other hand, there are worries about the housing market and inflation is not going anywhere fast. Poloz will meet the press at 15:15.
Crude oil inventories: Wednesday, 14:30. Oil prices have risen as US shale production began reaching its limits. We will now see if this, together with the driving season, push inventories lower.
USD
Crude oil inventories
Janet Yellen testifies
CAD
Canadain rate decision
- EURUSD
As could be seen on the chart above that the pair is traded right above a strong support level that could be found around the level of 1.1300. So, we believe that as long as the pair is traded above it, it is highly recommended to go long targeting the level of 1.1610 during the day.
| Resistance levels: | Support levels: | Recommended: |
| ▪ 1.1610 ▪ ▪ |
▪ 1.1300 ▪-1.1250 ▪ 1.1200 |
We remain bullish as long as the pair is traded above the level of 1.1300. |
- GBPUSD
Update: The pair is still traded right below the level of 1.3040 so we remain bearish. As could be seen on the chart above that the pair is traded right below a strong resistance level that could be found around 1.3040 so we believe that as long as the pair is traded below it, it is highly recommended to go short targeting the level of 1.3000 followed by 1.2900 during the week. On the other hand, breaching the level of 1.3040 will open the door for further upward movement during the week.
| Resistance levels: | Support levels: | Recommended: |
| ▪ 1.3040 ▪-1.3100 |
▪ 1.2900 ▪ 1.2800 ▪ — |
We remain bearish as long as the pair is traded below the level of 1.3040 |
- GOLD
As could be seen on the chart above that the pair is traded right below a strong resistance level that could be found around the level of 1217 so we believe that as long as the pair is traded below it, it is highly recommended to go short targeting the level of 1200 during the day.
| Resistance levels: | Support levels: | Recommended: |
| ▪ 1270 ▪ 1265 ▪ 1217 |
▪ 1215 ▪ 1210 ▪ 1200 |
We remain bearish as long as the pair is traded below the level of 1217 |
- AUDUSD
As could be seen on the chart above that the pair is traded right below a strong resistance level that could be found around the level of 0.7700 so we believe that as long as the pair is traded below it, it is highly recommended to go short targeting the level of 0.7600 followed by 0.7500 during the week.
| Resistance levels: | Support levels: | Recommended: |
| ▪ 0.7700 ▪-0.7800 ▪ 0.7850 |
▪ 0.7600 ▪ 0.7550 ▪ 0.7500 |
We remain bearish as long as the pair is traded below the level of 0.7700. |
- GBPJPY
As could be seen on the chart above that the pair is traded right below a strong resistance level that could be found around the level of 148. So, we believe that as long as the pair is traded below it, it is highly recommended to go short targeting the level of 147 followed by 146 during the week.
| Resistance levels: | Support levels: | Recommended: |
| ▪ 148 ▪ 147.95 ▪ |
▪ 145 ▪ 144 ▪ 143 |
We remain bearish as long as the pair is traded below the level of 148. |
