US CPI: Friday, 12:30. Inflation is falling, but the Fed calls it transitory, due to one-off factors. In May, annual core CPI fell to 1.7%, more than expected. Month over month, core inflation was up only 0.1%. Headline CPI dropped by 0.1%, but this could genuinely be blamed on oil prices. The figure will be closely watched. Headline CPI is expected to rise by a modest 0.1% m/m and core CPI by 0.2%.
US Retail Sales: Friday, 12:30. Consumption is key to the US economy. In May, sales were down 0.3%, falling short of expectations. Also core sales declined by 0.3%, showing that the US consumer is more hesitant. Both headline sales and core sales carry expectations for a rise of 0.2% m/m.
US industrial output: Friday, 13:15. While the manufacturing sector is relatively small, it still has an impact and is closely watched. Production remained flat in May and a small rise is on the cards for June: 0.3%.
US consumer confidence: Friday, 14:00. The University of Michigan / Reuters measure of consumer confidence stood at 95.1 points in June, slightly lower than in April. We now get the preliminary figure for July and expectations stand at 95.2 points.
USD
US PPI
- EURUSD
Update: The pair may go down targeting the level of 1.1310 (correction) then a pullback is expected. There is a bearish divergence so this may help the USD to gain value against the EUR. . As could be seen on the chart above that the pair is traded right above a strong support level that could be found around the level of 1.1300. So, we believe that as long as the pair is traded above it, it is highly recommended to go long targeting the level of 1.1610 during the day.
| Resistance levels: | Support levels: | Recommended: |
| ▪ 1.1610 ▪ ▪ |
▪ 1.1300 ▪-1.1250 ▪ 1.1200 |
We remain bullish as long as the pair is traded above the level of 1.1300. |
- GBPUSD
Update: We remain the same. As could be seen on the chart above that the pair is traded right below a strong resistance level that could be found around 1.3040 so we believe that as long as the pair is traded below it, it is highly recommended to go short targeting the level of 1.3000 followed by 1.2900 during the week. On the other hand, breaching the level of 1.3040 will open the door for further upward movement during the week.
| Resistance levels: | Support levels: | Recommended: |
| ▪ 1.3040 ▪-1.3100 |
▪ 1.2900 ▪ 1.2800 ▪ — |
We remain bearish as long as the pair is traded below the level of 1.3040 |
- GOLD
The pair is traded in a descending channel as could be seen on the chart above. So we remain bearish as long as the pair is traded below the upside of the channel that it may go down targeting the level of 1205.
| Resistance levels: | Support levels: | Recommended: |
| ▪ 1270 ▪ 1265 ▪ 1225 |
▪ 1215 ▪ 1210 ▪ 1200 |
We remain bullish as long as the pair is traded below the level of 1210 |
- AUDUSD
Update: we are waiting for the pair to give a bearish sign right below the level of 0.7750. As could be seen on the chart above that the pair is traded right below a strong resistance level that could be found around the level of 0.7700 so we believe that as long as the pair is traded below it, it is highly recommended to go short targeting the level of 0.7600 followed by 0.7500 during the week.
| Resistance levels: | Support levels: | Recommended: |
| ▪ 0.7700 ▪-0.7800 ▪ 0.7850 |
▪ 0.7600 ▪ 0.7550 ▪ 0.7500 |
We remain bearish as long as the pair is traded below the level of 0.7750. |
- GBPJPY
Update: we remain the same. As could be seen on the chart above that the pair is traded right below a strong resistance level that could be found around the level of 148. So, we believe that as long as the pair is traded below it, it is highly recommended to go short targeting the level of 147 followed by 146 during the week.
| Resistance levels: | Support levels: | Recommended: |
| ▪ 148 ▪ 147.95 ▪ |
▪ 145 ▪ 144 ▪ 143 |
We remain bearish as long as the pair is traded below the level of 148. |
