Australian jobs report: Thursday, 1:30. Australia enjoyed a whopping jump of 42K jobs in May, way above expectations. This sent the unemployment rate down to 5.5%. Another beat could make the RBA change its mind. A more modest gain of 15.3K is projected and the unemployment rate is predicted to tick up to 5.6%.
Japanese rate decision: Thursday, during the Asian session, press conference at 6:30. The Bank of Japan continues its recent policy of keeping 10-year yields around 0%. Recently it found itself intervening more and more in order to maintain its target, thus printing more money and keeping the pressure on the yen. While no change is expected in the policy driven by Kuroda, the updated assessment about the economy and especially inflation (remains very low), will be of interest.
ECB rate decision: Thursday, the decision at 11:45, press conference at 12:30. In its last rate decision in June, the ECB described risks as balanced instead of as tilted to the downside. In addition, they no longer mentioned the option to lower interest rates in their forward guidance. However, there were no clear hints about tapering, they downgraded inflation forecasts and in addition, ECB President Mario Draghi expressed frustration about core inflation. Since then, that core inflation number ticked up and Draghi made his Sintra speech. There, Draghi talked about a shift from deflation to reflation and mentioned a gradual removal of the stimulus. This time, no new forecasts are on the cards but reporters and markets would like to know if the ECB will announce the beginning of the end of its bond-buying scheme, currently set to expire by year-end. Any optimism about inflation and growth would be euro-positive, while a damp mood by the President of the Frankfurt-based institution would hurt the euro.
US Philly Fed Manufacturing Index: Thursday, 12:30. This indicator for the manufacturing sector is published very early: this one is for the month of July. Back in June, the figure beat expectations with 27.6 points. A slide to 23.8 is expected now. While the sector is small, it is still significant. Jobless claims are released at the same time but remain quite stable.
AUD
Australian Jobs Report
- EURUSD
Update: We remain the same as the pair is still traded below the resistance level of 1.1540. As could be seen on the chart above that the pair is traded right below a strong resistance level that could be found around the level of 1.1540 so we believe that as long as the pair is traded below it, it is highly recommended to go short targeting the level of 1.1450 followed by 1.1400. On the other hand, breaching the level of 1.1540 would open the door for further upward movements during the week that the pair may reach the level of 1.1650.
| Resistance levels: | Support levels: | Recommended: |
| ▪ 1.1610 ▪ 1.1540 ▪ |
▪ 1.1300 ▪-1.1250 ▪ 1.1200 |
We remain bearish as long as the pair is traded below the level of 1.1540 |
- GBPUSD
Update: the pair may continue going down to reach the level of 1.2900 and it is still traded below the resistance level of 1.3125. As could be seen on the chart above that the pair is traded right below a strong resistance level that could be found around 1.3125 so we believe that as long as the pair is traded below it, it is highly recommended to go short targeting the level of 1.3000 followed by 1.2900 during the week. On the other hand, breaching the level of 1.3125 will open the door for further upward movement during the week.
| Resistance levels: | Support levels: | Recommended: |
| ▪ 1.3125 ▪ 1.3200 ▪ 1.3300 |
▪ 1.2900 ▪ 1.2800 ▪ — |
We remain bearish as long as the pair is traded below the level of 1.3125 |
- GOLD
Update: We have detected a bearish divergence and it is still traded below the level of 1240. We remain bearish. The pair is traded right below a strong resistance level that could be found around the level of 1240. So, we believe that as long as the pair is traded below it, it is highly recommended to go short targeting the level of 1220 during the week. On the other hand, breaching the level of 1240 can open the door for further upward movements during the week.
| Resistance levels: | Support levels: | Recommended: |
| ▪ 1270 ▪ 1265 ▪ 1240 |
▪ 1220 ▪ 1210 ▪ 1200 |
We remain bearish as long as the pair is traded below the level of 1240 |
- AUDUSD
Update: On its way to the level of 0.8000. The pair managed to break through the level of 0.7820 (which is a strong resistance level) so we believe that as long as the pair is traded above it, it is highly recommended to go long targeting the level of 0.8000 during the week. On the other hand, breaching the level of 0.7820 would open the door for the pair to reach the level of 0.7700.
| Resistance levels: | Support levels: | Recommended: |
| ▪ 0.7820 ▪ 0.8000 ▪ |
▪ 0.7700 ▪ 0.7600 ▪ 0.7500 |
We remain bullish as long as the pair is traded above the level of 0.7820. |
- GBPJPY
Update: the pair is still traded right below the level of 148 so we remain bearish. As could be seen on the chart above that the pair is traded right below a strong resistance level that could be found around the level of 148. So, we believe that as long as the pair is traded below it, it is highly recommended to go short targeting the level of 147 followed by 146 during the week.
| Resistance levels: | Support levels: | Recommended: |
| ▪ 148 ▪ 147.95 ▪ |
▪ 145 ▪ 144 ▪ 143 |
We remain bearish as long as the pair is traded below the level of 148. |
